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# Premier League Matchweek 8: Full Game-by-Game Analysis
*(All times UK local, checked against the official Premier League schedule)*
This is the **clock-change weekend**. Kick-offs are on BST through Saturday 24 October and on GMT from Sunday 25 October, so Friday and Saturday times are BST and Sunday times are GMT. The round runs Friday to Sunday.
**How my Matchweek 7 calls did:** a middling round. I got the outcome right in 6 of 10 games (Chelsea, Fulham, City, Brighton, Arsenal and Spurs all went the way I expected) but didn't land an exact score. The misses were Liverpool's 2-1 win at Brentford, Villa's 1-0 win at Newcastle, Bournemouth's 2-0 win over Sunderland and the 1-1 at Leeds. Brighton's 5-0 win over Palace was bigger than my 3-1.
**League snapshot:**
- Man City lead on 21 points (7-0-0) and are still perfect, though they let in two against Ipswich. Arsenal (18) are grinding out results, with their last two wins both by a single goal. Brighton (16) are third.
- Chelsea (13) and Liverpool (12) round out the top five.
- Brentford, Leeds and Everton are all on 10, and between them they've drawn 12 of their 21 games.
- At the bottom, Sunderland (4 pts) are last after a run of four straight defeats and a draw. Fulham and Forest have 5, and Spurs, Coventry and Bournemouth have 6.
- A scheduling note: Palace, Brighton and Bournemouth play in UEFA competition the Thursday before, which is why their games moved to Sunday. Tired legs are a real factor for those three.
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## Friday 23 October
### 8:00 PM BST: Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
The model favours Forest (41.7% to Ipswich's 31.2%), and the betting line also treated Ipswich as slight underdogs at one point, but I'm leaning the other way. Ipswich (3-4-0) have still not drawn a game all season and their matches tend to be open and decisive. They scored in their narrow 3-2 defeat at City and in their win at Fulham the week before, so they usually find a goal at Portman Road. Forest (1-4-2) are the real problem: they've scored once or not at all in their last four games, including a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal. Their defence is solid enough to keep games close, but the lack of a cutting edge keeps costing them. Ipswich's home form and goals should edge a tight one.
**Prediction: Ipswich Town 2-1 Nottingham Forest**
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## Saturday 24 October
### 12:30 PM BST: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
City are the model's clear pick (56.2% to Villa's 21.1%), and a 7-0-0 record backs that up. Their last two results were 3-0 at Liverpool and a 3-2 win over Ipswich, though, so they aren't invulnerable defensively. Villa (2-3-2) just won 1-0 at Newcastle, their second win of the season, and they have the attacking ability to trouble City on a good day. The early kick-off at Villa Park, a ground that has been unkind to City before, gives the hosts a fighting chance. City's depth and Haaland's form should be enough, but I expect Villa to score. A reminder that City's 114-charge verdict is under appeal; I haven't factored it in, since nothing has changed on the pitch.
**Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City**
### 3:00 PM BST: Arsenal vs Everton
The most lopsided game of the round: Arsenal 69.2%, draw 19%, Everton just 11.8%. Arsenal (6-1-0) are winning, but narrowly: 2-1 over Leeds, then 1-0 at Forest. They're getting the points without playing with total fluency. Everton (2-1-4) suffered their first defeat of the season, 2-0 at home to Chelsea, and they've scored only 1 or 0 goals in most of their recent games. The Emirates is a very hard place to go with that attack. I expect Arsenal to control the game and finally put some daylight between themselves and a visitor who can't score.
**Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton**
### 3:00 PM BST: Coventry City vs Fulham
A rare case where the model (Fulham 40%, Coventry 32.7%, draw 27.3%) and the betting line (Coventry were slight favourites) disagree. Coventry (2-0-5) have only two wins all season, both in the last few weeks, but they lost 3-1 at Spurs last time and are still leaking goals (13 conceded in their first six games). Fulham (1-4-2) finally ended a long winless run with a 1-0 win over Hull, their first victory of the season. They're hard to beat but still short of goals. Two struggling sides, little to separate them, and both have scored just enough to avoid a goalless draw.
**Prediction: Coventry City 1-1 Fulham**
### 5:30 PM BST: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
A London derby with a big gap in form. Chelsea (4-2-1) are fourth and have won their last two comfortably (5-1 over Bournemouth, 2-0 at Everton), and the model gives them 57.1%. Spurs (1-3-3) finally ended a long winless run with a 3-1 win over Coventry, which should help their confidence, but they're still 16th and have conceded in almost every game. Stamford Bridge is a tough place to take a result with that defensive record. Chelsea's attack is in good form, and the bookmakers' high goals line (3.5) suggests an open game. Spurs will get a goal, but Chelsea should have too much.
**Prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur**
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## Sunday 25 October (GMT, clocks go back)
### 2:00 PM GMT: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Palace were thrashed 5-0 at Brighton last time, and now play a European game on Thursday before this one, so fatigue is a concern. Newcastle (2-3-2) are in a slump of their own, having lost four of their last five including a 1-0 defeat at home to Villa. The model leans slightly to Newcastle (39.9% to 33.8%), but neither side inspires confidence. Palace's home crowd and the need for a reaction after the heavy defeat should keep this tight. Both sides have scored few goals recently, so I expect a cagey draw.
**Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United**
### 2:00 PM GMT: Hull City vs Brentford
The model strongly favours Brentford (55.6% to Hull's 20.7%). Brentford (2-1-4) lost for the first time this season, 2-1 at home to Liverpool, but remain one of the league's hardest sides to beat, with just one defeat in seven. Hull (2-2-3) have been unimpressive lately (LDLDD) and lost 1-0 at Fulham, struggling to score. The MKM Stadium is not an easy ground, but Brentford's set pieces and organisation should be enough to get the win, and they'll want to bounce back after their first loss.
**Prediction: Hull City 1-2 Brentford**
### 2:00 PM GMT: Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion
The most intriguing game of the Sunday. Liverpool (3-1-3) are fifth and just won 2-1 at Brentford, a good sign after being beaten 3-0 by City. Brighton (5-1-1) are in superb form, having beaten Arsenal 3-0, Sunderland 2-0 and Palace 5-0 in their last three, with a unbeaten run of five. But they play in Europe on Thursday, and a trip to Anfield on short rest is a big ask. The model gives Liverpool a modest edge (44.1% to 30.4%), and I agree, mainly because of the home crowd and Brighton's fatigue. Expect goals at both ends, with Liverpool just edging it.
**Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion**
### 2:00 PM GMT: Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth
United (1-2-4) have drawn four of their seven games, including 1-1 at Leeds last time, and look short of a cutting edge. Bournemouth (1-3-3) finally won, 2-0 over Sunderland, ending a long winless run, but they also play in Europe on Thursday, which makes the trip to Old Trafford harder. The model favours United (51.2% to 24.3%), and with a tired opponent and a home crowd desperate for a win, I expect them to do just enough. It won't be convincing, but it should be three points.
**Prediction: Manchester United 2-1 AFC Bournemouth**
### 4:30 PM GMT: Sunderland vs Leeds United
A fixture with the highest draw probability of the round (29.2%), and I agree it's the likeliest outcome. Sunderland (1-5-1) are bottom, having lost their last four before drawing, and badly need points. Leeds (2-1-4) have drawn four of their seven games and are very hard to beat (just one defeat), but equally hard to win with. The Stadium of Light crowd will push the hosts, and Leeds will probably sit back and counter. Neither side can be trusted to win, so I expect a share of the points.
**Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United**
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## Summary Table
| Date | Kickoff (UK) | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct | 8:00 PM BST | Ipswich Town | 2 – 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| Sat 24 Oct | 12:30 PM BST | Aston Villa | 1 – 2 | Manchester City |
| Sat 24 Oct | 3:00 PM BST | Arsenal | 2 – 0 | Everton |
| Sat 24 Oct | 3:00 PM BST | Coventry City | 1 – 1 | Fulham |
| Sat 24 Oct | 5:30 PM BST | Chelsea | 3 – 1 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2:00 PM GMT | Crystal Palace | 1 – 1 | Newcastle United |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2:00 PM GMT | Hull City | 1 – 2 | Brentford |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2:00 PM GMT | Liverpool | 2 – 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2:00 PM GMT | Manchester United | 2 – 1 | AFC Bournemouth |
| Sun 25 Oct | 4:30 PM GMT | Sunderland | 1 – 1 | Leeds United |
**Biggest swing risks:**
- **Liverpool–Brighton and Villa–City** are the most likely to produce a surprise, since both involve a form team against a side with a real home edge.
- **Ipswich–Forest** is the one where I'm going against the model, so it's the pick most likely to be wrong.
- **The Thursday European games** involving Palace, Brighton and Bournemouth could shift the Sunday results either way, depending on rotation and how those matches go.
Team news closer to kickoff could change several of these.