AI Opinion / Explanation

# NCAAF Week 8 Predictions — Saturday, October 24, 2026 Based on the latest available AP Top 25 poll, recent results, team records, opponent-adjusted ratings, and matchup previews, here are my predicted scores for every game on October 24 involving an AP-ranked team. The AP poll available for this preview is dated October 18, following a remarkable Week 7 in which five of the top seven teams lost. Miami moved to No. 1, BYU rose to No. 2, and Texas fell to No. 19. That upheaval makes this week's matchups especially important.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.ncaa.com\&sz=32) NCAA.com +2 All kickoff times below are U.S. Eastern Time (ET). Scores are predictions, not results. I use a winner-first format to make the projected winner easy to identify. ## Quick prediction table | Kickoff (ET) | Matchup | Predicted score | | ------------ | -------------------------------------- | ------------------ | | 12:00 PM | No. 8 Texas Tech at Cincinnati | Texas Tech 34–24 | | 12:00 PM | No. 18 LSU at Auburn | LSU 27–23 | | 12:00 PM | California at No. 23 SMU | SMU 31–20 | | 12:00 PM | Pittsburgh at No. 1 Miami | Miami 38–20 | | 12:00 PM | Rutgers at No. 24 Northwestern | Northwestern 27–20 | | 12:00 PM | No. 6 Indiana at Michigan | Indiana 27–24 | | 3:30 PM | Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama | Alabama 30–24 | | 3:30 PM | No. 15 Iowa at Minnesota | Iowa 24–17 | | 3:30 PM | No. 2 BYU at UCF | BYU 34–24 | | 3:30 PM | Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA | UCLA 27–17 | | 3:30 PM | No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina | Tennessee 31–27 | | 6:00 PM | No. 21 Boise State at Washington State | Boise State 31–24 | | 7:30 PM | No. 16 USC at Wisconsin | USC 31–24 | | 7:30 PM | Vanderbilt at No. 12 Kentucky | Kentucky 27–20 | | 7:30 PM | Iowa State at No. 25 Arizona | Arizona 30–24 | | 7:30 PM | No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas | Texas 31–28 | | 10:15 PM | No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah | Utah 31–23 | The schedule and kickoff windows are cross-checked against the published Week 8 slate.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.ncaa.com\&sz=32) NCAA.com +2 ## Game-by-game analysis ### 12:00 PM ET — Early games [Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) on X](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/pgp7AZTUm5nPRlYanPPljY_PB5SBsP12nPwCQg6SrsaT4gSALmR_SYPkLd2ZZv1lsgDZ8ntlj3sttXtIAhQ3TFBzUfbVayhA2dWLfXs6WX_WEx1Y-DCa9f1zHtWpYu39oBnvhq1k6a8UAANnrL1kOOnV0o908s45UIWedbQeOM0?purpose=inline) 1\. No. 8 Texas Tech at Cincinnati ## Texas Tech 34–24 Pick: Texas Tech Texas Tech enters unbeaten at 6–0 and coming off a commanding 53–25 win over Arizona State. That explosive performance reinforces the Red Raiders' ability to score in bunches. Cincinnati's home field should help it stay competitive, but Texas Tech's momentum and higher-end offensive ceiling give it the advantage. I expect Cincinnati to score enough to remain in the game into the second half before Texas Tech pulls away. [LSU v Auburn](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/eHVtJ4jVzm9rrVbQCO4CtkDx5qP3akDwR1FOhXkWpzWTxDtNBiYh0TAiA_0mCoEEd-_Jk1YnutPPGsT3ThCZt0Ld51p8SJt3MRzZLrZv6qMNT5ZKE9obuzMs-djTP24aypTCToKyBnDhfsND85DwrjorSPvIfuh7KSs6mr2UF3cj3CBZaj_bkUNK0XZljDvz?purpose=inline) 2\. No. 18 LSU at Auburn ## LSU 27–23 Pick: LSU Auburn is dangerous after stunning then-No. 1 Georgia 27–24 with a last-second field goal. That result demonstrates that Auburn can compete under pressure, especially at home. LSU, however, is coming off a 31–0 shutout of Mississippi State, showing the defensive potential to control a game. An opponent-adjusted model also rates LSU much more highly than its AP ranking suggests. I favor LSU narrowly, but this is one of the more upset-prone early games.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.reuters.com\&sz=32) Reuters +1 [Gerald J. Ford Stadium - SMU Facilities](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/3atqi5vn_hMaRwvioqaFT1QaSIQLNldvN4GKlKzqqPJGKaOCzw-Bv8ozk5I4I8P1YJrJuwhfgxuNCq9EfdSLULsYSMbM6vTUz7R2rTtg55yEqM3cneyUUKopJ2itiLysqh348y4rd-VlHelncJYl517x3UTOfzGtmjXoI21yMMA?purpose=inline) 3\. California at No. 23 SMU ## SMU 31–20 Pick: SMU SMU is 5–1 and beat Virginia 23–13 last week. The Mustangs have the better recent result and will be playing at home. Their AP ranking is not especially strong by opponent-adjusted metrics, so I would not assume a dominant performance. Nevertheless, California will need to disrupt SMU's offensive rhythm and avoid giving up short fields to produce an upset. SMU is my pick by about two scores.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.ncaa.com\&sz=32) NCAA.com +2 [Where the Miami Hurricanes rank in AP poll after win over Florida A&M Rattlers - Yahoo Sports](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/DjLRpV0f91DbnJe7XRDKvbH2OCFn_bWcuoQ9F8yuJx0P8ToHPRWAAuPpwVi6OpJz3qQf2qPfhufuXLFczw6DUbKzSh5PecdOQx5fVUJQj_Qjfm6QYZmQIhGtxaRIRVotfi8OhJhAGzH2TYlzEJgt3BrbIazWzViI7iDrIv8ywoo?purpose=inline) 4\. Pittsburgh at No. 1 Miami ## Miami 38–20 Pick: Miami Miami is 6–0 and arrives after a dramatic 43–35 double-overtime win over Florida State. Pittsburgh has been vulnerable against explosive passing plays, a particular concern against Miami quarterback Darian Mensah. The Hurricanes' ability to generate big plays should create separation, although their defense may concede some points after an emotionally demanding previous game. Miami is the strongest pick on the noon slate.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.foxsports.com\&sz=32) FOX Sports +1 [Penn State v Northwestern](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/kzlA01PvGUuB1h_GTYG3ZlnHTp4GABaSWqKg1_vl0ocvngnO9COZL0IO5JJrBeCoOXgwWi00m_f7lXqHPkrQl8H73Z4OlzNpXj4VZr5jGAINOwlqBpgMRY35fNfc0r6tUEBIKzXFtOaUqUWDf1CKmVscDuZa6t-4hZD-K5UbUCPu46qxnLJJsOABjbsjyTEq?purpose=inline) 5\. Rutgers at No. 24 Northwestern ## Northwestern 27–20 Pick: Northwestern Northwestern is 5–1 and won 24–21 at Michigan State last week. The Wildcats have demonstrated that they can handle a tight road game, and now return home. An opponent-adjusted rating places Northwestern substantially higher than its AP ranking, suggesting that the team may be better than poll voters currently recognize. I expect a relatively low-scoring game in which Northwestern's home advantage and late-game execution make the difference.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.ncaa.com\&sz=32) NCAA.com +1 [Indiana v Michigan](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/OToHds1wQzgENbfXwX0LgGPw0YPUrDBdjoouWcxoxFQhFnjuC57VTDtPM6bYDF1v8k9WwEd69cyA8IdAqH5HP5SHmHmoXV0lj9gdzwI56k6tyNtMCGyWaztdVoapDDMpY4C9bxfE2e2MRagS3C6Yh6gwVEqOOTHKe9qLGggzTmQtKRGpStdAGV_Anz1_cG9R?purpose=inline) 6\. No. 6 Indiana at Michigan ## Indiana 27–24 Pick: Indiana — close game Indiana's 22-game winning streak ended with a 19–15 loss to Ohio State, but that narrow result should not erase its strong season. Quarterback Josh Hoover has an outstanding reported 18-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio through Week 7. Michigan, meanwhile, may turn to Tommy Carr after a quarterback change helped spark a comeback against Penn State. Michigan's home field makes this a serious test, but I give Indiana a slight edge in offensive consistency.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.foxsports.com\&sz=32) FOX Sports +1 ### 3:30 PM ET — Afternoon games [No. 1 Alabama survives upset scare on final play in 24-20 win over Texas A&M - Yahoo Sports](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/azwToOTKxKnLBYJ8tTrJ_i6xCQrPLljyPhFubdp5jpHAS4gz77wnF0TE9hB2LbOd7Jr5T2oWlf4GdtHp1-ipozEtTSFmMpRi3e8YvnBf0sYcET_TAVYxRz0qEcIyAFDXaz6GginRnfpwAUpqC1HzvE4KI6vUMNgtmLmEKd0mDns?purpose=inline) 7\. Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama ## Alabama 30–24 Pick: Alabama — moderate confidence Alabama is 5–2 and needs a response after losing 26–10 to Tennessee. The Crimson Tide still rate well offensively, but their defense has been less reliable than their historical reputation might suggest. Texas A&M has an opportunity to exploit that weakness and make the game physical. I lean Alabama because of its offensive potential and home advantage, though the recent loss makes a comfortable victory difficult to predict. An independent model also favors Alabama.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.ncaa.com\&sz=32) NCAA.com +2 [The Hawkeyes can keep the Floyd of Rosedale home if they can continue the positive momentum](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/A2boX91RX8XntQoPQBbb4D7_IjcFQC9hmq42uhpotjdkx_RSDwqp3UIPccCfkuI2gClDgXWPA8yBohUOWJ9SZf6-PHo37_aMI7ThQfuE1Ns34WCEgyCpw1UOQD_3yZ5Fl65YreuC5BEx9PIbR35JqhSMncIQOJ991k-MMc_9pQU?purpose=inline) 8\. No. 15 Iowa at Minnesota ## Iowa 24–17 Pick: Iowa Iowa is 5–1 and is favored by an opponent-adjusted model that gives the Hawkeyes roughly a 64% chance to win. Minnesota's home field and the rivalry atmosphere make an upset possible, but I expect Iowa to keep the game controlled rather than allow a shootout. If the Hawkeyes protect the ball and turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns instead of field goals, they should be able to build a narrow lead.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.ncaa.com\&sz=32) NCAA.com +1 [BYU's football schedule is about to get even more difficult, again – Deseret News](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/HmUqS1aTHFtxq8MXMtuc3PDpNrWZ4A_OCWp_sadLANqr96nCKo9wIpnGOmw377DBpTPa46Y3mjxuNp6kWerOSkdWXRoEuh_GfXBrF225vwbtTNu22_1yqj-tqyAQqiW-VEMO9gyaIvx_oB8RWfcBtTmdwNz5K1yTWhJqmRSzm-Y?purpose=inline) 9\. No. 2 BYU at UCF ## BYU 34–24 Pick: BYU BYU's 28–24 win over Notre Dame was one of the defining results of Week 7. Bear Bachmeier reportedly accounted for four touchdowns and 284 yards in that game, illustrating the variety of ways BYU can create offense. The Cougars are unbeaten at 6–0, while UCF has been less consistent. UCF could use its home field to keep the contest close, but BYU's offensive versatility makes it my pick to win by around ten points.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.nbcsports.com\&sz=32) NBC Sports +2 [Football to Host Maryland for Homecoming at Rose Bowl Saturday - UCLA Bruins](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/4hOJev-VmqhJdcwLqNZQSvj1pKThVi0dfYxBal9DpqvHmSWMPWPGIYfvLw_07_sehl63mLhK_fSk5ad0WAo28_AUKH5S0Tdl6K_P2CiaFv6p-804aCiqejRhQOR7NycON38lhlXoAruO74oMYdHU8ybr-xYe1OscTB8_Dm31teM?purpose=inline) 10\. Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA ## UCLA 27–17 Pick: UCLA UCLA remains unbeaten at 6–0 and defeated Wisconsin 17–7 last week. That result points to a team capable of winning without relying on a high-scoring game. Michigan State is coming off a narrow loss to Northwestern, so the Spartans need to improve their finishing on offense. I expect UCLA to use its home advantage, sustain longer drives, and force Michigan State to chase the game late. [Tennessee v South Carolina](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/LEHy22CQkj_o7RMOnuohOA1dz1z1z_LwHAZYdNt8-doxWnhk1xNV6a7tgXFPzBajNRsDG8KOfLINd36q9guqzRHqE-eY5uYGK3f1t24f2ClFRbTFqrxjwKCpogoAdAC15ObsbEBGNKRk6KLk3B2eBiQL9SghQRtXNaPFyF1OAJq4xlz6KH4EqpIoff4rFSTE?purpose=inline) 11\. No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina ## Tennessee 31–27 Pick: Tennessee — upset risk Tennessee's 26–10 victory over Alabama was a major statement, particularly given Alabama's ranking and reputation. However, this road game is more dangerous than the rankings alone suggest. An opponent-adjusted model gives Tennessee only a narrow advantage, with South Carolina's estimated win probability close to 46%. I expect the Gamecocks to make Tennessee work for every possession, but Tennessee's recent performance earns it my slight preference.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.reuters.com\&sz=32) Reuters +1 ### 6:00 PM ET — Late-afternoon game [Washington State v Boise State](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/dYCkkVerurvWQSTZFolY4xOJULvDUHcx5rU9dHUDDYw61pc6wL200e56_jLUaLtjmyvh8XIdTOWyVoGII6D-Juar4hg-AM8i3PWhTQeXo5zYZibIyGLbjy8LKzPCFbHtBnohj2DqoRuzxFKvJRtDRiPA2hOLcTeckypxpolSPUfzlUfWlDnnaNPddOEW_9k0?purpose=inline) 12\. No. 21 Boise State at Washington State ## Boise State 31–24 Pick: Boise State Boise State is 5–1 and remains among the AP Top 25. Washington State's home advantage makes this a more competitive matchup than the rankings might imply, but Boise State has the stronger national profile and a solid record. I expect Washington State to find scoring opportunities, particularly if Boise State struggles to establish control early. The Broncos should prevail if they avoid turnovers and finish drives consistently. ### 7:30 PM ET — Evening games [TST Images: USC Trojans with strong comeback to defeat Wisconsin Badgers, 38-21](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/UpkIfes69STSSn0RPMsmFUA6_H5r8ln3KAJTO_L12C2sNSL5WNJfQ2v1BLdX185Amg5UiJFAa9Rn1RyPD7LCAIUqoXtu5DXrnxen8yUtGukY7xqppLRP0ik8kHfUY04FzzQM0jdVDzQmmNY7OpGR83mIPFvylsBrfW98cvGsPkw?purpose=inline) 13\. No. 16 USC at Wisconsin ## USC 31–24 Pick: USC — moderate confidence USC is 6–1 and has the stronger ranking, while Wisconsin is coming off a 17–7 loss to UCLA. USC should have opportunities to generate more explosive offense, but playing in Wisconsin is not an easy assignment. If the Badgers can slow the pace and turn this into a physical, low-possession game, they have a path to an upset. I still favor USC's scoring potential by one touchdown. [Vanderbilt Football at Kentucky Football Tickets | Oct 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM - Kroger Field, Lexington, KY | Gametime](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/jCNIUMcTaGDgVW2crJ83TTNcKKRo8RuiFPyP1qojChHD4YLIdVFGkKXnQ98NOaYJyWVUcaskWcBQxklSfUQtTZtOoBjSrmcfj6nHQrEcCDH1HqCvpff5Nxk7OlQ58cN4_DH4Pwra9F2W1wV3xycBSbYJTiPS8H81Jg2ZtViijc4?purpose=inline) 14\. Vanderbilt at No. 12 Kentucky ## Kentucky 27–20 Pick: Kentucky Kentucky is 6–1 and has moved up to No. 12. Its 21–13 win over Oklahoma last week showed that it can handle a competitive opponent without needing a shootout. Vanderbilt will need to be efficient on third downs and avoid giving Kentucky short fields. I expect Kentucky to control enough possessions to maintain a modest lead, although Vanderbilt could keep it close if it limits turnovers. [Grading The Arizona Defense Overall Through Seven Games](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/otA0MCJVBfBBxYxY4C7FBWeH6B3phjE2Fh_mOF0YbSP8CR3my3i3xdio7qdNml_LaZmCJL-QAzWyqHYCT6DCwZVu-R0fkmq4PXkp4PcRy6_rtcR92RLV_HFcnFm4O0VibAaX5ARALfYwH976YJdwtWpipwR9KDD-rpcYqqn0PiQ?purpose=inline) 15\. Iowa State at No. 25 Arizona ## Arizona 30–24 Pick: Arizona — moderate confidence Arizona is 5–1 and has returned to the AP Top 25. The Wildcats have an opportunity to strengthen their standing against an Iowa State team that can make the game uncomfortable if it limits mistakes and keeps the score close. Arizona's home field and current ranking give it the edge, but I would not treat this as a mismatch. A turnover or a failed red-zone possession could swing the result. [Arch Manning, Trinidad Chambliss among headliners at 2026 Manning Passing Academy - On3](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/xmlDOH4kuhV86fRGfB1SgU3WIEqL0un6_hbaBrugS_YxCHeC_WywrFI1hjSGKyIbATg5kFNnCvWVGQGwNOPhTqO_i1e3YTieNEcB-wU3yVBrbJXpC6BHUGVvD1WthOw1AbxA35s96j6_6-hd0_8CKHEBPA9HMOa6WMCC8kzGmko?purpose=inline) 16\. No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas ## Texas 31–28 Pick: Texas — high upset potential This is one of the most difficult games to call. Ole Miss has bounced back impressively, outscoring Vanderbilt and Missouri by a combined 83–20. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has reportedly thrown 14 touchdowns and is responsible for 20 total scores, while the Rebels' defense has improved. Texas, however, gets the home field and will start Arch Manning. The Longhorns have suffered consecutive losses and struggled with costly late turnovers, so they must protect the ball and improve their rushing production. One opponent-adjusted model gives Texas a 55% chance to win, and another projection favors Texas by about 3.6 points. I narrowly agree with the home-team pick, but Ole Miss could easily win this one.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.foxsports.com\&sz=32) FOX Sports +2 ### 10:15 PM ET — Late-night game [Utah football is sticking close to home for its first official jersey patch.](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/fI-TmgBQHil5BvNWuVwJswYf31QAOBwQPVOtulztAaouJ7studXG3thsEasH1oA4U-OECGhtipSQPIS8pK4OZdtM3TLqyE-y3XadGon-lJ_DTaTiY_e7V16tSIkEEtXX8zWkHoyRgBUtsYpfLfrkpVaUaK8DHdcn8RvCsqpH4lQ?purpose=inline) 17\. No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah ## Utah 31–23 Pick: Utah This is the other major ranked-versus-ranked contest. Houston is 6–1 and needs a win to keep pace in the Big 12, while Utah is unbeaten at 6–0. Utah narrowly defeated Colorado 27–24 last week, so it has not been invulnerable. Houston's 35–32 win over Oklahoma State shows its ability to score in a close game. Still, Utah has home advantage, and an opponent-adjusted model gives the Utes approximately a 76% win probability. I expect Houston to stay within reach for three quarters before Utah creates separation late.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.foxsports.com\&sz=32) FOX Sports +2 ## My strongest picks and upset watch ### Highest confidence [Gameday Live: Hurricanes 31, Blazers 14 – University of Miami Athletics](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/foPTftJ9cb_3f-4rUCpJoB1wpLW9jUdWpkfh3HlUEpsQNF0-udy746eiryNEIhLASbixQmo8fNTbTLEyty2g6xAQbOGrecAHk-JBkGUzuUErmgRx7cTIFmXPBp_6lkVHQ2tILTK3Jvn8tG5Wjn7IVHogD7L1PaAGjhVv-bYfvl4?purpose=inline) Miami over Pittsburgh — 38–20 Miami's unbeaten record and Pittsburgh's vulnerability to big passing plays make this my strongest noon pick. [No. 16 BYU Releases Depth Chart for Notre Dame](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/89tZvFmAccBw4IEeME6J_amS8etVd43CfGlOEXBIL3py3vcfh52qc-m7taH7w-hdgHWOJMGsCLzbr8MQ4aW-hxjhAE21_qeZ1PxAsLioSKljy7RGdjd_1hOT9t8u0C0pN2IYJXloqNxM6YHExcT7-TLGo2Jr5C1O1wOt0cI5mBY?purpose=inline) BYU over UCF — 34–24 BYU's unbeaten start and recent win over Notre Dame support the pick. [Who Started the Texas Tech 'Guns Up' Hand Gesture?](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/reeWGLvZOfkQX91x6H9tii2_t6cwWEfsHmBVPgiOB7-pM6euTXoAp6p7ND4ycBzxjpNFPAWBnhrmSurbn2YTNI9AMtwtTYD3BFUkIGBO6lFwZLT1OtGQz0gwuMJNwP780C0sOyhiFtvKrz2zbkj-BkT4Gi56M93pf3uocnq3ei8?purpose=inline) Texas Tech over Cincinnati — 34–24 The Red Raiders' 53-point performance last week supports their offensive upside. ### Best upset opportunities - Ole Miss over Texas: Texas gets the home field, but Ole Miss has the stronger recent momentum and a dangerous offense. - Michigan over Indiana: Michigan's quarterback change could spark the offense, while Indiana is coming off its first loss in a long winning streak. - South Carolina over Tennessee: The model sees a near-even contest, so Tennessee's ranking should not be treated as a guarantee. - Auburn over LSU: Auburn just beat Georgia, and that confidence could carry over against LSU. - Minnesota over Iowa: Iowa is favored, but Minnesota at home could turn this rivalry into a low-scoring upset. The upset-risk assessment is informed by the current AP poll, the Week 7 results, and opponent-adjusted projections—not just the teams' rankings.  [image](https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=https://www.reuters.com\&sz=32) Reuters +2 ## Final outlook The two games I expect to have the greatest effect on the national picture are Ole Miss at Texas and Houston at Utah, because both are direct meetings between AP Top 25 teams. BYU, Miami, and Texas Tech have the clearest paths to wins among the unbeaten teams in this group, while Indiana, LSU, and Tennessee face more uncomfortable tests. These are my best score estimates based on information available before kickoff. College football scores are inherently volatile, and the close-game predictions—especially Texas–Ole Miss, Indiana–Michigan, and Tennessee–South Carolina—carry meaningful uncertainty.